National's Mahesh Muralidhar on course to reclaim Tamaki from ACT, new poll shows
National Party leader Christopher Luxon and deputy leader Nicola Willis campaign for Mahesh Muralidhar (extreme right) in Tamaki. (Supplied photo)
A new poll puts National's Indian-origin candidate 18 points ahead of ACT, with former Brooke van Velden voters shifting towards him.
National's Indian-origin candidate Mahesh Muralidhar has opened up an 18-point lead over his ACT rival in Auckland's Tāmaki electorate, according to a new poll released just days before New Zealand's general election on Saturday, November 7.
The Curia Market Research poll, commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers' Union and released on November 3, puts Muralidhar on 40 per cent of the electorate vote, well ahead of ACT's James Christmas on 22 per cent and Labour's Max Harris on 15 per cent.
The findings suggest National could reclaim one of its traditional strongholds, which it lost to ACT deputy leader Brooke van Velden in a major upset at the 2023 election.
The poll surveyed 400 eligible and likely voters between October 21 and 28, with a maximum margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.
Former ACT voters shifting towards National
National's Mahesh Muralidhar on course to reclaim Tamaki from ACT, new poll shows A new poll puts National's Indian-origin candidate 18 points ahead of ACT, with former Brooke van Velden voters shifting towards him.
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One of the most striking findings is the apparent movement of voters who backed van Velden three years ago.
Among respondents who said they voted for her in 2023, 44 per cent now intend to support Muralidhar, almost matching the 45 per cent who would vote for Christmas.
The poll also reveals significant cross-party voting among current ACT supporters. While 58 per cent of those intending to give ACT their party vote would back Christmas in the electorate contest, 29 per cent would support Muralidhar instead.
National's own supporters are more firmly behind their candidate, with 73 per cent intending to vote for Muralidhar and 16 per cent for Christmas.
The findings come despite Christmas enjoying slightly higher name recognition. Asked to name the candidates, 67 per cent correctly identified Christmas, compared with 62 per cent for Muralidhar and 41 per cent for Harris.
Excluding undecided voters, Muralidhar's support rises to 42 per cent, compared with 24 per cent for Christmas and 16 per cent for Harris.
A traditional National stronghold
Tāmaki, covering Auckland's affluent eastern suburbs, including Mission Bay, St Heliers, Kohimarama, Glendowie, Meadowbank and Ōrākei, has historically been one of National's most dependable electorates.
Former prime minister Robert Muldoon represented the seat for 31 years, beginning in 1960. National continued to dominate the electorate for decades before van Velden defeated incumbent MP Simon O'Connor in 2023.
Van Velden secured 17,858 votes against O'Connor's 13,700, winning by a majority of 4,158 votes.
But the electorate result masked a significant split in voter loyalties. National received 21,916 party votes, compared with ACT's 5,172, showing that a substantial number of National supporters had backed van Velden personally while retaining their allegiance to National.
With van Velden not contesting Tāmaki this year, the seat is being fought by new candidates from both parties.
The latest polling indicates that much of the personal support van Velden attracted in 2023 has not transferred to her ACT successor.
A potential milestone for Indian representation
Muralidhar's candidacy also carries historical significance for Indian-origin representation in Parliament.
Originally from Kerala, India, Muralidhar is a technology entrepreneur and venture capitalist who was an early team member at Canva before founding Auckland-based Phase One Ventures.
National selected him to contest Tāmaki earlier this year, marking an unusual decision to field an Indian-origin candidate in one of its traditionally safest urban electorates.
The party's previous Indian-origin MPs, including Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi and Parmjeet Parmar, entered Parliament through the party list rather than winning electorate seats.
Muralidhar previously contested Auckland Central for National in 2023 but lost to Green Party MP Chlöe Swarbrick.
An electorate victory in Tāmaki would therefore represent a significant breakthrough for Indian-origin representation within National.
National dominates party vote
The poll also shows National retaining its advantage in the party vote, although with less support than it received in 2023.
Excluding undecided voters, National is polling at 45 per cent, followed by ACT on 19 per cent, Labour on 16 per cent, and the Greens, New Zealand First and Opportunity Party on 6 per cent each.
National's party-vote support is eight percentage points below its 2023 result, while ACT is seven points higher.
On the question of the country's direction, 64 per cent of respondents said New Zealand was heading in the right direction, compared with 26 per cent who disagreed.
Cost of living emerged as the electorate's biggest concern, identified by 25 per cent of respondents, followed by the economy at 16 per cent, crime at 12 per cent and health at 10 per cent.
Advance voting began on October 26, with election day scheduled for Saturday, November 7. Polling places will be open from 9am to 7pm, with preliminary results expected progressively from 7pm.
