After 10 years, five leaders and a name tweak, the Opportunity Party is on the cusp of making it into Parliament for the first time.

And leader Qiulae Wong knows it is make-or-break.

The upstarts registered 4.6 percent support in the latest 1News Verian poll, just outside the 5 percent threshold to make it into Parliament.

Since the first MMP election in 1996, no genuinely new party - as opposed to one founded or led by veterans of an existing parliamentary party - has made it into Parliament.

For example, ACT was founded by former Labour and National MPs, New Zealand First splintered off National and the Greens first entered under the Alliance banner, which was a spinoff from Labour. United Future was another Labour splinter, as was the original Māori Party, which itself birthed Mana.

Wong told Morning Report on Tuesday she saw Opportunity as replacing New Zealand First as the country's political 'kingmaker'.

"I believe they stand for division and they use division to get votes, whereas we want to actually find common ground and bring people together, particularly our major parties who do actually agree on a lot of stuff a lot of the time, but they do need a bit of a broker sometimes to move forward and make sure that we hold them accountable.

"I think they also have a bit of a nostalgic view of what New Zealand could be and want to take us backwards to the past, whereas Opportunity is very much focused on taking us forward."

To get into Parliament, Opportunity will need to either poll over the 5 percent threshold at the election or win an electorate seat - the latter of which has been a lifeline in the past for the likes of ACT and Te Pāti Māori.

Wong became leader near the end of 2025, as the party rebranded from 'Opportunities' to 'Opportunity'.

Their current platform includes a major revamp of the tax system, including a $20,000 universal basic income for everyone paid for by taxing land ownership more and people's incomes less.

Supporters of basic income schemes argue it simplifies - and in some cases, completely replaces - complex income support programmes, and will provide a buffer if technology starts replacing jobs en masse.

It has been part of Opportunity's platform since the beginning, when founder and economist Gareth Morgan set it at $10,000.

Wong said it would be "naive" to expect such a radical shakeup pushed by a small party to happen "overnight", and was instead proposing a 10-year transition plan..

"The problems that we're trying to solve here are partly around our housing problems. So that's the land tax side of it.

"And the universal income, or citizens income as we call it,. is about simplifying our welfare system, taking some of the burden off income tax so people actually keep more of what they earn. And we make up for that by putting a bit more of the burden onto property, which is currently untaxed."

Wong said it has become a problem that New Zealand's parties have essentially replicated the first-past-the-post system by settling into two blocs, one of the left and one on the right.

"That's not the point of MMP. If you look at international examples, there's much more diversity in the way those coalitions come together."

While NZ First has in the past backed governments led by both Labour and National, Wong said the country needed a "stable centrist party… versus something like New Zealand First, which I think accentuates the pendulum politics in that division".

"I come from a business background and that lack of stability between successive governments is really what most business people complain about. And when I've gone out and spoken to teachers, people that work in the health sector, infrastructure, it's that flip-flopping that is killing New Zealand's productivity."

Bottom lines

So, to the big question - should Opportunity become kingmaker, which major party would she prefer to side with?

"Our first principle is to negotiate first with the party that gets the largest number of votes at the election. I think that's a tradition that enables stable politics, and so that's the approach we would take."

"We'll set out some really clear bottom lines close to the election. We've got some policy priorities that we've already talked about, things like a long-term energy strategy, addressing our oceans and some of the crisis that's happening there, and productivity and innovation is really important to us as well. So those are the kinds of things we'll prioritise and we'll be very clear with voters what we will push for in a coalition agreement.

"If we can't get what we want from that first side, we'll go to the other and see what they have to offer as well."

Failing that, Wong said the party would be happy to support a minority government from the cross-benches.

"We wouldn't just take a seat at the table for the sake of it. We don't want to compromise on our values and our policies, because we only get one shot at being in Parliament for the first time and we want to do a good job by our voters."

(This story was first published on rnz.co.nz)